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Is possible to live from Forex ?
Hello, I'm a new trader. I'm 23 years. I just started trading forex on MT4, my broker is VantageFx. I made like 1k5€ in 3 days ( this was the first time I traded ). But it's still not real for me, because it was really easy to make this money with no experience at all. So I'm wondering if it's a trap or is it real ? I searched all over internet and everytime they say it's really hard to live from trading, and I see a lot of people loosing a lot of money but I don't know how did they do it. But I don't know if I was lucky and made 1k5€ just from pure luck or is trading forex is really easy ? Sorry for my Bad english, I'm french. Edit : Thank you for all your feed back ! I will cash out the money I originaly put and I will keep testing my strat. I will make another post in maybe 1 month to update my mindstate and share with you my conclusion.
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Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)
Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. Idomybit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1.The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. *EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
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Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
[META] Recent scam/spam trends.. Or, a peak inside what it's like to moderate /r/forex
After a few...especially trying...interactions with unhappy ban recipients today, I thought it would be fun to share a little info on what moderators do to keep this place clean. :) The forex industry is full of shady characters. Any industry sitting on the intersection of financial independence, work, and money, is bound to attract them. There are many reasons for this; the lower barrier to entry compared to other markets, the lack of public knowledge on the subject, and greedy human nature to name a few. Moderating a subreddit dedicated to forex (or anything trading realted for that matter,) presents extra challenges beyond your regular sub. Marketers and scammers are super motivated, and MLM / referral marketing is extremely popular right now, which can turn everyday regular users into sources of spam. How we currently tackle this problem involves technology (scripts, bots, and automod,) a mod review workflow, and some smart sleuthing when needed. The mod team and our scripts aren't perfect though... but the few false positives we get are a very, very small fraction of all mod actions taken (~1%.) Unfortunately, that means some otherwise sincere members get handled roughly, and that can really suck.. I wish there was a better way, but the alternative is this place becomes a wild west and starts looking like your gmail spam folder. That said, here's my personal stats for JUST the last 24 hours:
Bans: 14[edit:16 nowbefore day's end, two more responding to a 'where can I learn how to trade' post.]
All mod actions (including bans, post and comment removal, etc..): 63
Ban appeals: 2
And I'm just one of the mods. . . So what scammer and marketing trends are we seeing lately?
Content marketing - Infographics with instagram handles watermarked in them, or a blog-like post with a embedded links to their own site.
Personal/direct selling - trying to move the conversation out of public view, usually by taking things to DM, or promoting a 3rd party chatroom where the rules here no longer apply.
Shills - Fake accounts used to boost the credit of another user, or service. It's no coincidence that a user asking about 'ULRA PRO SIGNALZ' will quickly have 5+ replies by low karma, new users, saying how great the service is. [edit:here's an example I just caught..]
Fake P/L Porn - We see this quite often. It's easy to fake MT4 account statements and MT4 Mobile screenshots, and new users can't tell the difference so these posts will get a lot of undeserved attention. When people ask how OP made such mad cash, a sales pitch is usually coming right up.
Honestly, it can be really frustrating at times.. luckily the scripts we have in place make weeding out ~80% of these jokers quite easy and quick. Heck, we had one scammer who blew through 12+ accounts over the last few days trying to scam people but none of their posts ever saw the light of day thanks to the spam triggers I've written. What motivates the mod team to keep this place clean? That's an easy answer: The majority of users here are new to trading. Making sure they aren't food for the wolves is important. But even with all the measures we take, some bad actors still get through. So here's where you can help: Use the report button! Anytime you see something that you think fits the descriptions listed above, or violates our sidebar rules, just report it. Even if you're not 100% sure, don't be afraid to use the report tool.. The worst thing that can happen is the mod team reviews and approves it, but the best outcome is you directly help keep this place clean and humming! :) And the mod team is always looking to improve where it can: I've already talked about what we do to scrub away bad actors, but one place we could do better is education. The plan is to rewrite a good portion of the wiki to include the following sections:
Spotting scams and scammers
How to properly compare brokers and regulatory bodies
The real reason why your old high school friend wants you to sign up to IML, and 10 ways to politely tell him to pound sand
No, that hot instagram model won't sleep with you if you buy her online course
Why all signal services are trash and can die in a fire
(Titles above are a work in progress ;P) Are you a good writer and want to help out with this? Think you can write up a killer wiki article on spotting scam artists? Message the mods and let us know! Finally, a reminder, we are still interested in taking on more moderators and will be revisiting that very shortly. If you'd be interested, read through this post and reply accordingly: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h7ok6k/seeking_more_mods_recruitment_thread/
Bitcoin Broker Understand the Benefits of CryptoCurrency Trading
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, which can be spent, saved, or invested, and it can be stolen too. Trading with Bitcoins was considered to be risky, but the current trends show that it has become a big hit the binary options sector. This decentralized currency is not regulated by any Government, or by any central authority. What determines the price of Bitcoins? Bitcoin's price is determined according to the supply and demand ratio. Price increases when the demand increases, the rates plummet downwards when the demand falls. Bitcoins in circulation are limited, and new ones are created at a very slow rate. Since it does not have enough cash reserve to move the market price, its price can be extremely volatile. Bitcoin trading is popular because of -
Low inflation risk - Inflation is the biggest issue for traders, because all the currencies lose some of their purchasing power when the reserve banks keep printing more currency. With Bitcoin minting system being limited to just 21 million Bitcoins, it hardly gets impacted with inflation.
Low collapse risk - Currencies fluctuations depend on government trade policies, which at times cause hyperinflation, and even lead to the collapse of currency. Bitcoin is a virtual universal currency, which is not regulated by any government.
Simple, safe and cheap - The Bitcoin payments take place between peer-to-peer without any intermediary, which is why it is simple and cheap.
Easy to carry - Bitcoins worth million dollars can be carried in your pocket, in a memory stick. This cannot be done with gold or cash.
Untraceable - Issuance of Bitcoin is not regulated by any government, so the risk of seizure is nil.
Binary options Bitcoin trading platform bitcoin binary options are getting familiar with popularity of these Bitcoins, and its constant fluctuating values. Therefore they are using this opportunity to offer traders with the latest volatile crypto-currency as an additional payment method. Bitcoin brokers providing crypto-currency as trading option include -
One touch option - Bitcoin trading can be done with AnyOption or one-touch option. For example the current popular currency pair is BTC/USD.
SetOption - The latest option available for asset trading is BITCOIN/USD.
Bitcoin brokers provide a simple trading online platform. All you have to do is visit their website, enter your details, and create an account. You can start with demo account to understand the market action. The trading screen is simple.
Pick the price direction (UP/DOWN)
Select the timeframe
Is Bitcoin trading secure? Bitcoin network is possibly the world's vast spread computing project. The most common weakness here is the user errors. Bitcoin wallet files can get lost, stolen, or deleted accidentally just like any other files in the digital form. However, users can use sound security strategies to protect their cash. Alternatively, you could choose the service providers who offer high-level security, as well as insurance against loss or theft. We provide latest information on Bitcoin brokers and online trading platforms on our website. Please visit our website to check out the broker reviews in order to make the right choices.
ILPT Request: Money laundering using cryptocurrency.
I'm asking for a friend whether or not it is still possible to launder money properly using crypto in Australia at this point in time after the government has cracked down on the laws. We are very noob at crypto and are unsure of what to do. Let's say one person was planning to have around $1500-$2000 Aud per week deposited into their bank account which they will then declare as income and pay tax on. (That's the goal) How is this done? The person plans to turn 1500 of Australian cash into crypto, then into their bank and pay tax, without getting in trouble. Please help
Are you searching for an easy way to learn about trading on the forex market? If your answer is yes, then you will get some guidance in the following article. It is possible that you have been hearing some of your family or friends talking about making millions from forex trading and you want to generate some money as well. However, before going into the guide to learn forex trading, you need to get a good understanding of the different techniques. 📷 First and foremost, you have to understand that it is possible to learn forex trading and make lots of money, but there is also a bit of learning curve to taken into consideration. If you do not take the time to master this, then you will probably end up losing a lot of money like most people do when they are just starting out. The reality is, most times a number of mistakes have to be made and also a significant amount of cash is lost before you might get it right. But, with experience and the correct techniques you can gradually begin to generate profitable earnings each year. At this point, here are some of the suggestions that can hopefully help you to reduce the learning period and enable you to start trading successfully. Forex trading lessons Even if you think that these lessons are not really necessary, you will find that it is very important, especially when you are new to trading. This kind of trading is naturally a complex activity and you will need to get a basic understanding of the financial and foreign exchange terms prior to starting the process. Some examples of the terms include bid and ask price, pivot point, bid or ask spread, limit and stop order and so on. Presently, there are numerous free tutorials and training courses available on the internet, so you will not genuinely require spending any kind of money before you start learning to trade. As soon as you get a little bit of knowledge and begin to trade in this market for a little while, you can easily purchase the intermediate to advanced trading courses like the forex mentor tutorial. Forexstimulator and account One of the resources usually recommended for the first time traders is the forex simulator, as this will help to catch on a little faster. You will find plenty information available on the websites, if you want research about this free simulator. When you think that you learn enough to try it on your own, then you can go ahead and open one of the mini accounts for forex trading. By using the mini account it would be possible to begin trading with actual cash, which can be as small as $100 US. The reason why this is a good amount to start with is because the regular accounts are usually US $50000 the minimum to start with and since you are just starting out you might not have that amount of cash. Furthermore, the mini account will work similar to the regular one and this will be a great way to start off learning and also make your mistakes. If you follow this guide to learn forex trading, it will make it possible for you to learn some techniques in no time and minimize your losses in the end. Source: https://www.usshocknews.com/2020/08/guide-to-learn-forex-trading.html
The Next Crypto Wave: The Rise of Stablecoins and its Entry to the U.S. Dollar Market
Author: Christian Hsieh, CEO of Tokenomy This paper examines some explanations for the continual global market demand for the U.S. dollar, the rise of stablecoins, and the utility and opportunities that crypto dollars can offer to both the cryptocurrency and traditional markets. The U.S. dollar, dominant in world trade since the establishment of the 1944 Bretton Woods System, is unequivocally the world’s most demanded reserve currency. Today, more than 61% of foreign bank reserves and nearly 40% of the entire world’s debt is denominated in U.S. dollars1. However, there is a massive supply and demand imbalance in the U.S. dollar market. On the supply side, central banks throughout the world have implemented more than a decade-long accommodative monetary policy since the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the need for central banks to provide necessary liquidity and keep staggering economies moving. While the Federal Reserve leads the effort of “money printing” and stimulus programs, the current money supply still cannot meet the constant high demand for the U.S. dollar2. Let us review some of the reasons for this constant dollar demand from a few economic fundamentals.
Demand for U.S. Dollars
Firstly, most of the world’s trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Chief Economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, has compiled data reflecting that the U.S. dollar’s share of invoicing was 4.7 times larger than America’s share of the value of imports, and 3.1 times its share of world exports3. The U.S. dollar is the dominant “invoicing currency” in most developing countries4. https://preview.redd.it/d4xalwdyz8p51.png?width=535&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0556c6aa6b29016c9b135f3279e8337dfee2a6 https://preview.redd.it/wucg40kzz8p51.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=71257fec29b43e0fc0df1bf04363717e3b52478f This U.S. dollar preference also directly impacts the world’s debt. According to the Bank of International Settlements, there is over $67 trillion in U.S. dollar denominated debt globally, and borrowing outside of the U.S. accounted for $12.5 trillion in Q1 20205. There is an immense demand for U.S. dollars every year just to service these dollar debts. The annual U.S. dollar buying demand is easily over $1 trillion assuming the borrowing cost is at 1.5% (1 year LIBOR + 1%) per year, a conservative estimate. https://preview.redd.it/6956j6f109p51.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccea257a4e9524c11df25737cac961308b542b69 Secondly, since the U.S. has a much stronger economy compared to its global peers, a higher return on investments draws U.S. dollar demand from everywhere in the world, to invest in companies both in the public and private markets. The U.S. hosts the largest stock markets in the world with more than $33 trillion in public market capitalization (combined both NYSE and NASDAQ)6. For the private market, North America’s total share is well over 60% of the $6.5 trillion global assets under management across private equity, real assets, and private debt investments7. The demand for higher quality investments extends to the fixed income market as well. As countries like Japan and Switzerland currently have negative-yielding interest rates8, fixed income investors’ quest for yield in the developed economies leads them back to the U.S. debt market. As of July 2020, there are $15 trillion worth of negative-yielding debt securities globally (see chart). In comparison, the positive, low-yielding U.S. debt remains a sound fixed income strategy for conservative investors in uncertain market conditions. Source: Bloomberg Last, but not least, there are many developing economies experiencing failing monetary policies, where hyperinflation has become a real national disaster. A classic example is Venezuela, where the currency Bolivar became practically worthless as the inflation rate skyrocketed to 10,000,000% in 20199. The recent Beirut port explosion in Lebanon caused a sudden economic meltdown and compounded its already troubled financial market, where inflation has soared to over 112% year on year10. For citizens living in unstable regions such as these, the only reliable store of value is the U.S. dollar. According to the Chainalysis 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, Venezuela has become one of the most active cryptocurrency trading countries11. The demand for cryptocurrency surges as a flight to safety mentality drives Venezuelans to acquire U.S. dollars to preserve savings that they might otherwise lose. The growth for cryptocurrency activities in those regions is fueled by these desperate citizens using cryptocurrencies as rails to access the U.S. dollar, on top of acquiring actual Bitcoin or other underlying crypto assets.
The Rise of Crypto Dollars
Due to the highly volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, USD stablecoin, a crypto-powered blockchain token that pegs its value to the U.S. dollar, was introduced to provide stable dollar exposure in the crypto trading sphere. Tether is the first of its kind. Issued in 2014 on the bitcoin blockchain (Omni layer protocol), under the token symbol USDT, it attempts to provide crypto traders with a stable settlement currency while they trade in and out of various crypto assets. The reason behind the stablecoin creation was to address the inefficient and burdensome aspects of having to move fiat U.S. dollars between the legacy banking system and crypto exchanges. Because one USDT is theoretically backed by one U.S. dollar, traders can use USDT to trade and settle to fiat dollars. It was not until 2017 that the majority of traders seemed to realize Tether’s intended utility and started using it widely. As of April 2019, USDT trading volume started exceeding the trading volume of bitcoina12, and it now dominates the crypto trading sphere with over $50 billion average daily trading volume13. https://preview.redd.it/3vq7v1jg09p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f11b5f5245a8c335ccc60432873e9bad2eb1e1 An interesting aspect of USDT is that although the claimed 1:1 backing with U.S. dollar collateral is in question, and the Tether company is in reality running fractional reserves through a loose offshore corporate structure, Tether’s trading volume and adoption continues to grow rapidly14. Perhaps in comparison to fiat U.S. dollars, which is not really backed by anything, Tether still has cash equivalents in reserves and crypto traders favor its liquidity and convenience over its lack of legitimacy. For those who are concerned about Tether’s solvency, they can now purchase credit default swaps for downside protection15. On the other hand, USDC, the more compliant contender, takes a distant second spot with total coin circulation of $1.8 billion, versus USDT at $14.5 billion (at the time of publication). It is still too early to tell who is the ultimate leader in the stablecoin arena, as more and more stablecoins are launching to offer various functions and supporting mechanisms. There are three main categories of stablecoin: fiat-backed, crypto-collateralized, and non-collateralized algorithm based stablecoins. Most of these are still at an experimental phase, and readers can learn more about them here. With the continuous innovation of stablecoin development, the utility stablecoins provide in the overall crypto market will become more apparent.
In addition to trade settlement, stablecoins can be applied in many other areas. Cross-border payments and remittances is an inefficient market that desperately needs innovation. In 2020, the average cost of sending money across the world is around 7%16, and it takes days to settle. The World Bank aims to reduce remittance fees to 3% by 2030. With the implementation of blockchain technology, this cost could be further reduced close to zero. J.P. Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S., has created an Interbank Information Network (IIN) with 416 global Institutions to transform the speed of payment flows through its own JPM Coin, another type of crypto dollar17. Although people argue that JPM Coin is not considered a cryptocurrency as it cannot trade openly on a public blockchain, it is by far the largest scale experiment with all the institutional participants trading within the “permissioned” blockchain. It might be more accurate to refer to it as the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) instead of “blockchain” in this context. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that as J.P. Morgan currently moves $6 trillion U.S. dollars per day18, the scale of this experiment would create a considerable impact in the international payment and remittance market if it were successful. Potentially the day will come when regulated crypto exchanges become participants of IIN, and the link between public and private crypto assets can be instantly connected, unlocking greater possibilities in blockchain applications. Many central banks are also in talks about developing their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Although this idea was not new, the discussion was brought to the forefront due to Facebook’s aggressive Libra project announcement in June 2019 and the public attention that followed. As of July 2020, at least 36 central banks have published some sort of CBDC framework. While each nation has a slightly different motivation behind its currency digitization initiative, ranging from payment safety, transaction efficiency, easy monetary implementation, or financial inclusion, these central banks are committed to deploying a new digital payment infrastructure. When it comes to the technical architectures, research from BIS indicates that most of the current proofs-of-concept tend to be based upon distributed ledger technology (permissioned blockchain)19. https://preview.redd.it/lgb1f2rw19p51.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=040bb0deed0499df6bf08a072fd7c4a442a826a0 These institutional experiments are laying an essential foundation for an improved global payment infrastructure, where instant and frictionless cross-border settlements can take place with minimal costs. Of course, the interoperability of private DLT tokens and public blockchain stablecoins has yet to be explored, but the innovation with both public and private blockchain efforts could eventually merge. This was highlighted recently by the Governor of the Bank of England who stated that “stablecoins and CBDC could sit alongside each other20”. One thing for certain is that crypto dollars (or other fiat-linked digital currencies) are going to play a significant role in our future economy.
There is never a dull moment in the crypto sector. The industry narratives constantly shift as innovation continues to evolve. Twelve years since its inception, Bitcoin has evolved from an abstract subject to a familiar concept. Its role as a secured, scarce, decentralized digital store of value has continued to gain acceptance, and it is well on its way to becoming an investable asset class as a portfolio hedge against asset price inflation and fiat currency depreciation.Stablecoins have proven to be useful as proxy dollars in the crypto world, similar to how dollars are essential in the traditional world. It is only a matter of time before stablecoins or private digital tokens dominate the cross-border payments and global remittances industry. There are no shortages of hypes and experiments that draw new participants into the crypto space, such as smart contracts, new blockchains, ICOs, tokenization of things, or the most recent trends on DeFi tokens. These projects highlight the possibilities for a much more robust digital future, but the market also needs time to test and adopt. A reliable digital payment infrastructure must be built first in order to allow these experiments to flourish. In this paper we examined the historical background and economic reasons for the U.S. dollar’s dominance in the world, and the probable conclusion is that the demand for U.S. dollars will likely continue, especially in the middle of a global pandemic, accompanied by a worldwide economic slowdown. The current monetary system is far from perfect, but there are no better alternatives for replacement at least in the near term. Incremental improvements are being made in both the public and private sectors, and stablecoins have a definite role to play in both the traditional and the new crypto world. Thank you. Reference:  How the US dollar became the world’s reserve currency, Investopedia  The dollar is in high demand, prone to dangerous appreciation, The Economist  Dollar dominance in trade and finance, Gita Gopinath  Global trades dependence on dollars, The Economist & IMF working papers  Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination, BIS  Biggest stock exchanges in the world, Business Insider  McKinsey Global Private Market Review 2020, McKinsey & Company  Central banks current interest rates, Global Rates  Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent, CNBC  Lebanon inflation crisis, Reuters  Venezuela cryptocurrency market, Chainalysis  The most used cryptocurrency isn’t Bitcoin, Bloomberg  Trading volume of all crypto assets, coinmarketcap.com  Tether US dollar peg is no longer credible, Forbes  New crypto derivatives let you bet on (or against) Tether’s solvency, Coindesk  Remittance Price Worldwide, The World Bank  Interbank Information Network, J.P. Morgan  Jamie Dimon interview, CBS News  Rise of the central bank digital currency, BIS  Speech by Andrew Bailey, 3 September 2020, Bank of England
https://preview.redd.it/81cx1yfe1pm51.jpg?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ceddeda7d5dc0be5c7d4b4dfa7a715baac65b3a In the later part of websites are the testimonials screaming out loud regarding their success.BitQT review can be quiet judgemental at this point as a result of neither these testimonials prove the legitimacy of the web site nor the live profit reviews account such You extremely want to understand that if you opt to speculate you’ll surely not visiting recover. TheBitQT just prove this by themselves stating it not being on affiliate terms with others. Something that’s claiming that you simply’ll earn 110zero greenbacks every day is doing a true-time scam job Perhaps, theBitQT states advertising itself on Times, CNN and Forbes however neither of them found supportive during this regard. You'll check it all by yourself. This is often the sound proof of its scamming regime throughout the globe It doesn’t have that laser-accurate performance as in trading bitcoin you can never guarantee the minimum amount of profit you be earning the other day. Its what happens when trading with Forex Many of the websites agree onto the proficiency ofBitQT negating the crucial and impactful proves I shared with you higher than. They are saying it’s flawless. Will something be this flawless letting you earn regarding one thousand bucks each day without charging a penny? The automated transactions are known to be deposited directly into the user’s account that is nowhere to find affiliation with. Undoubtedly, most of the revealing sites have the only supportive argument beginning with, ‘As the review suggests’. Do raise yourselves, is that this the legitimate way to prove legitimacy ofBitQT They too argue regarding the legitimate verification method. That’s the explanation why there’s a number of complaints with reference to the current. If these products would have really worked, why not each single person select to remain off from their offices integrating with it somehow: Merely head to the SIGN-UP section on theBitQT site, fill in your personal info, and present your registration. When acknowledged, you'll be able to be able to access our restrictive Bitcoin exchanging To induce your exchange account in progress, you’ll have to include some assets. WithBitQT, you can create a initial investment of as low as $250, although you'll be able to contribute as a lot of as you wantoy Since your enlistment has been acknowledged and you’ve invested some funds, you’re fully done. Simply click on ‘trade’ to receive the rewards ofBitQT’s highly rated algorithm. In case you need a hands-on approach, you can shift to manual operation by changing the settings There’s no harm in trading in terms of cryptocurrency. We have a tendency to’re not against it. But we tend to really aim to reveal the very fact thatBitQT isn't a legitimate website to believe during this case. To actually invest in bitcoin you initially want to shop for a bitcoin wallet so as to store all bitcoins. a series of blockchain integrations which permits you to top-up and earn. But, as stated earlier you’ve no actual guarantee concerning the number you wish to earn. Secondly, you wish to integrate your bitcoin wallet to your account and then you’ll be ready to head towards the foremost step. Here, you’ll jin a bitcoin exchange system for trading bitcoin for any different traditional currencies of the market. It works well solely if you for legitimate sites for functioning and planning. Perhaps, it too needs a nice amount of ability and we never promise you to begin earning when you join Bitcoin Exchanger somehow. This was all aboutBitQT Review as a full fulling the aim of alerting the scam going around. Money Forex Cluster scamThe Cash Forex Group is run by a company named CFxG which allegedly was founded by a team of experts in all kinds of areas, mainly education in the monetary trading field and network promoting. https://preview.redd.it/0gc7ga9f1pm51.jpg?width=474&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c031ac047e635c47d3ee592ab9235878613c890 These experts and their automated trading system will supposedly facilitate your to form heaps of cash. In trading solely you'll allegedly make fifteenp.c weekly on your investments. Then there are referral programs and multi-level structures that can boost your income even more. Is that t Money FX Group scamLet’s begin this Money Forex Group review by stating the obvious, this scheme may be a total scam, you just have to look at the numbers.BitQT When they promise you fifteen%+ weekly, it means that 60percent+ monthly, which is totally ridiculous in the important world. It means a lot of than 560zeropercent per year, therefore you'd need solely $18,00zero greenbacks to become a millionaire within year. And this is often plain impossible. No legitimate business can create you a gradual fifteenpercent weekly, no financial markets are that predictable and that easy to trade. It may appear straightforward to you, but it really is this straightforward, a program promising fifteenp.c weekly should be a scam, there is no alternative method, the Money FX Group is a scam. However there is additional to go through in this review. Massive lies Money FX Cluster testimonialThe Money Forex Cluster claims to be regulated by the subsequent institutions: FAC – Financial Conduct Authority of London, DFSA – Monetary Services Authority in Dubai, FSCA – Monetary Sector Conduct Authority of South Africa and FSA – the Monetary Services Authority of Seychelles. But guess what, the FAC will not even exist, while the others (DFSA, FSCA and FSA) haven't issued any license whatsoever to Cash Forex Cluster. Therefore not only Money FX Group is not regulated at all, it conjointly is lying huge time regarding its regulatory status. The fact is that it's no license whatsoever, so it cannot supply investment services legally in most countries. This is often conjointly why they want you to deposit cryptocurrencies, they wish to remain as anonymous as potential, so that they will run away along with your cash. Regulatory warning Not long when we have a tendency to printed our analysis, the Financial Conduct Authority (financial regulator in Nice Britain) came up with its own warning. The regulator said that CashFX is providing investment services without the mandatory authorization and advised the public to remain off from it. This is often a very serious argumentBiTQT. It'd be terribly unwise to deposit money with an unregulated and basically anonymous entity, as a result of it would not be protected in any means. No matter where the cash finally ends up, this program is promising you impossible returns on investments, which in itself confirms that something is wrong. How it works Let’s end this Cash Forex Group review by explaining the essential principle of this investment program. It's a Ponzi theme that does no real economic activity. It just collects money from individuals and may pay out some profits, but the most recent clients’ deposits can be used for that. This will have an inevitable outcome, the system can sooner or later crumble. It's simply a matter of your time when there can be not enough deposits to hide withdrawals and also the inevitable end can Nobody has not been paid, that is NOBODY ….. after all you can't compound or upgrade your CFX account unless you withdraw (get paid) …. CFX are not regulated…. as a result of they use a Regulated broker (everfx) to trade…so that information is also incorrect…and judging by the actual members comments….I’d say, members are happy….. long might that continue. BUT, you must never place in more than you are prepared to lose (In SOMETHING). However do correct analysis, ask members, don’t rely on people that play safe and stay poor. Do your own due diligence. (ps MOST sites that decision each business out as a scam…have their own links…..promoting guess what ? ….tip. SCAMS ! Beware. https://www.cryptoerapro.com/bitqt/ http://www.cryptoerapro.com/ https://twitter.com/cryptoerapro https://www.instagram.com/cryptoerapro/ https://www.pinterest.co.uk/cryptoerapro/ https://www.facebook.com/cryptoerapro
I assumed this was a scam or pyramid scheme of some sort. I received it on Instagram while also getting added by someone with the same mo on linkedin, offering thousand dollar sessions with him for learning. I know nothing about this kind of thing. Maybe someone could enlighten? Thanks B) Heya A) Hello? Please don't try get me into a pyramid scheme or something. B) Have you ever heard of forex trading? A) Never, not once B) Really, well Retail foreign exchange trading is a small segment of the larger foreign exchange market where individuals speculate on the exchange rate between different currencies. With a daily trading volume of 5 billion. B) It's a very profitable process x A) Ah okay, so it's foreign exchange trading? Using what, speculative algorithms or just guessing? B) Would you be interested in joining my forex team and start gaining some extra cash today? A) What I want if to have it explained. B) We trade on various different currencies , and we invest in whether the price of the currency will go up or down (This is also known as BUY/SELL or LONG/SHORT). We have 3 analysts 4, who use financial charts and financial news to determine what the markets are likely to do. Collectively, we have been trading for six years! Once we analyse the markets we will then send these trades to you so that you can place them, the trades are usually sent via telegram B) We do all the hard work so you don't have to, we just tell you what trades to place and you'll then click a few buttons on your phone/laptop to place the trades and that's it.Simple! B) We will set you up with a regulated broker, which we will provide you with a link with to sign up. You will use "MetaTrader 4" as the trading platform to place the trades. We then add you to our Telegram group and will send these trades daily'''. . B) So for instance say you start with €100+ today you would earn approximately €1870+ at the moment based on how the market is looking B) How do you feel about this x ? A) I assume there's a starting fee of some sort? B) Yeah you have to invest in order to make profit A) Okay, in your own system? B) Yeah x A) Okay, I'll make this easy, just read my first text again. Thank you.
Hi guys, I am starting to trade crypto. I can see a lot of volatility and the ability to enter good deals with 2-to-1 and 3-to-1 tp/sl ratios. I am looking for an intermediate/expert partner to just chat about the strategies and trade together. I plan to start with the 100$ deposit and the 1% risk profile. I trade on Binance. It's easy to park cash there without any requirements like you might have for stocks or trading forex with big companies.
A binary option is a financial option wherein the payoff is particular fixed money or nothing at all. There are mainly two types of binary options cash-or-nothing and asset-or-nothing binary options. The cash-or-nothing binary option pays some fixed amount of cash if the option expires “in the money.” The asset-or-nothing binary option, however, only pays the value of the underlying securities. This option makes many people quickly lose money trading binary options. So what happens when you have lost money trading binary options? Recover from Binary Options How to Recover from Binary Options Lost or Scam with a Verified Recovery Expert. Have you been enticed to get entangled in trading binary options? Have you had any bad experience with binary options? Are you a victim of the famous binary options scam? “How do you recover from binary options scam?” It happens to lots of people, even professional, educated people and the elite. If you get swindled, the first thing to do is not to beat yourself up over it but act fast. More importantly, suicide is not an option, and we can always heal and recover from our loses once there is life. An unfortunate story of an Australian man who got himself entangled in binary options lost a lot of money and had the third mortgage on his house with a lot of other debts. And then he ended his life. There are a lot of somber stories of people who have lost it all to binary options and have no clue how to recover from binary options schemes and fake brokers. Firstly it goes without saying, it’s better to prevent, investigating the business and doing background checks is very necessary before any investment. Here are some tips to help you.
When investing, do proper research and make sure the broker you are working with has an appropriate regulation and licenses like ASIC, FCA, CySEC, CFTC, BaFIN, or other government regulators.
Always make sure you don’t invest all of your money.
Get wealthy quick programs are bound to lose more money, don’t fall for investments of such.
Learn and do more research about the financial option you are planning to invest.
Listening to your broker is another mistake, as they have lost peoples money in many instances, the reverse of a brokers advice might be doing you better.
Check out the platform and use all their demo till you are skilled and never agree to add funds in a rush.
A lot of people have their first experience with binary options through a scam. Binary options trading scams are widespread, and recovering from binary options schemes might be very hard but not impossible. The binary options industry is steadily misused, and many scammers and thieves get away with a lot due to slack regulatory laws, shallow knowledge and negligence of victims. There are fake review websites that support and endorse these scams, so for a person with no trading experience, it is almost impossible to find the right path. A lot of people are getting duped and losing their money to these schemes. They have assured an income, but in actuality, they take their money and lose it deliberately. https://preview.redd.it/y9y274olp2j51.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e2f7c4667ae31cc5011c6a88713b111e14575b0 What to do if Scammed by Binary Options? The web has a lot of fraudulent binary options brokers. So once you realize you have been a victim of the scam, don’t panic! You will most likely go through guilting yourself and emotional distress. Your first step is to file a complaint to the customer services team. Always remember the risks involves in the trades, you can lose money as well as gain as much too. If you lose money or get scammed, you will be reminded of the risks. Documenting all that has happened is very important. The world would be better if we did not have thieves and people who create scams aiming to steal from us. The best move anyone can make is to educate themselves about possible scams and the way they work because they are everywhere and to be intelligent in the decisions made by them and the information they provide. These Con artists have found binary options a simple system to use their system to strip the money of unsuspecting casualties. This write-up will focus on educating you, on binary options scams and binary options scammers. If you have ever lost money to binary options, check for links below to hire a recovery organization to help you get your money back. Binary options investing can be an excellent way to make more money without having to do much, but when you are dealing with the wrong people, it can be a quick way to lose a massive amount of money. We believe when you are done reading this article, you will be able to determine the differences between reliable binary options systems and the scam artists. Don’t forget that you must file a complaint to customer services of the respective platform you used, and it is the first thing to do when you feel spooked. All regulatory bodies have their procedure and steps, and they will also ask if you have filed a complaint. In few countries, it is required legally that the company gives you a case number which you can then use to file a complaint to securities and exchange commission. It is also essential contacting your credit card company and bank fast so they can provide solutions such as chargeback for you. If you find that you get stranded and need help then get it to contact with a recovery expert, and your best bet is Assured Recover. They will undoubtedly be able to help recover all lost funds. Also, be very careful with recovery rooms as they can even scam you as an easy vulnerable target. Recover Losses made to Binary Options with Verified Recovery Experts. A few recovery companies that focus on lost funds and wealth recovery internationally. Some legitimate companies also claim they can help, but since there isn’t much of a right side to this, they usually fall short of their promise and client’s expectations. Some chargeback companies offer a service to help, and some may be able to help. A significant number of people who have lost money to fake binary options companies like IQ options, VIPBinary, 24option, and other fraudulent binary options trading platforms/companies that have bad reviews and been accused of scams. Assured Recover has successfully helped customers who were scammed and to get their money back. Here is a testimony how Assured Recover helped someone who got scammed by Trade Toro. One wouldn’t think much of this, all I wanted to do was invest and be part of it, but the brokers weren’t truthful. They collected money from all in the name of investment, and when it was time to withdraw, I realized I couldn’t. At the time was when it occurred to me, I had been duped. I consider myself to be one of the very few privileged ones as I was able to get all recovered from this scam Binary options brokers. Assured Recover is simply the best, and in less than 30 days all my funds including bonuses had been recovered, If your broker lost your funds trading Binary options, one of these verified recovery experts will help you get your funds back without any traces. I’m pleased to let people know how I was able to recover part the money that I got cheated by Trade Toro, and I’d like to write in favor of Assured Recover. Assured Recover is your best bet when it comes to binary options recovery. Binary options trading scams will make you lose money and also make you blame yourself for not being more careful. These Verified Recovery Experts offer binary options loss recovery service to everyone in need of such services. Here is the link to the original article, and how to recover money lost to binary options, forex, cryptocurrency etc.
Withdrawing USD Funds from Philippine-Based Paypal Account Using TransferWise Borderless Account
This is a response tou/sgicruz*'s post:* Best way to receive USD payment into a USD savings account?I created a post since this is a bit long comparison. If you are transferring large amounts of USD from Paypal (i.e. >USD 2,000 at a time), you are forced by Paypal to withdraw in PHP, since you cannot withdraw USD directly to Philippine-based USD accounts. Instead, you can use the TransferWise Borderless Account. The Borderless Account allows you to hold multiple currencies on the account, and also provides USD US Bank Account details (also GBP, Euro, AUD, NZD) which can receive funds via local ACH (automated clearing house). Paypal can withdraw USD funds via US ACH. (There is a verification step before being assigned bank account details: see footnote at the bottom of my post)* For comparison, below are three scenarios:
Total fees: PHP 200 (for USD 2,000 sample computation) (Note: if you use GCash, I think total fee is always PHP 0, subject to wallet and transaction limits) Exchange Rate (sample for May 8, 2020): 1 USD => PHP 48.9414 Net PHP received thru bank: PHP 97,682.70 (BDO) or PHP 97,882.70 (GCash) Paypal's PHP-USD buy/sell spread is horrendous at around ~3.0-3.5% compared to the mid-market rate. But this is still a valid option if (1) you are withdrawing small amounts, or (2) you need instant access to cash. --------------------------- 2. Paypal -> (Withdraw to US Bank Account) -> TransferWise Borderless Account -> (Send USD via SWIFT) -> BDO USD Savings Account Associated fees (sample computation for USD 2,000):
Paypal withdrawal from USD balance to US Bank Account = USD 35.00 (flat fee)
TransferWise fee for USD transfer over SWIFT = USD 1.40+3.20 = USD 4.60 (flat fee)
SWIFT intermediary/correspondent bank fees = USD 15.00 (flat fee, but can vary from 0-60 USD depending on route taken and on int'l bank relationships your local USD bank has)
BDO Incoming SWIFT Remittance = USD 5.00 (flat fee)
Total fees: 59.60 USD Net USD received thru bank: USD 1940.40 If your ultimate goal is to get the funds in PHP, we can try exchanging the USD to PHP via BDO Exchange Rate (sample for May 8, 2020): 1 USD => PHP 50.0000 (BDO USD Buy rates) Net PHP received thru bank: PHP 97,020.00 There are a lot of fixed fees, so this will only be economical for large amounts of USD (probably >USD 3,000). In addition, BDO's PHP-USD buy/sell spread is around ~0.5-1.0% compared to the mid-market rate. Paypal withdrawal to US bank account takes around 1-2 banking days, while SWIFT transfers take around 1-5 banking days. --------------------------- An alternative is to send PHP directly from TransferWise. This is cheaper than Paypal or even the USD route described above. This is because TransferWise's exchange rate uses the mid-market rate, and they have transparent fees. In addition, TransferWise -> Local PHP Savings Account settles in minutes, as opposed to the SWIFT USD transfer above (which can take anywhere from 2-5 banking days). 3. Paypal -> (Withdraw to US Bank Account) -> TransferWise Borderless Account -> (Send PHP via ACH [this means Bancnet]) -> Local PHP Savings Account Associated fees (sample computation for USD 2,000):
Paypal withdrawal from USD balance to TransferWise US Bank Account = USD 35 (flat fee)
TransferWise fee for PHP transfer over ACH (Bancnet) = USD 12.01
Total fees: USD 47.01 Net USD for conversion: USD 1952.99 Exchange Rate (sample for May 8, 2020): 1 USD => 50.4800 PHP Net PHP received thru bank: PHP 98,586.93 Paypal withdrawal to US bank account takes around 1-2 banking days, while TransferWise USD-PHP ACH (Bancnet) settles in minutes. --------------------------- *To receive your own USD bank account details, you're required to "Add Money" at least GBP 20 or its equivalent (maybe USD 25). This is their verification requirement. I recommend adding money using Visa/Mastercard Debit Card: TransferWise has around 4.5% fees for the Debit Card Add Money option, so it's going to cost around ~PHP 60 in fees. I recommend using CIMB ATM card if you have, since they currently (as of May 8, 2020) do not charge forex conversion fees. If not, any Visa/Mastercard debit card will do (including BDO Visa ATM cards). --------------------------- TLDR; For relatively small amounts, withdraw directly from Paypal to PHP bank account. Best choice is Paypal -> GCash (no inward remittance fee). For larger amounts, withdraw USD from Paypal to TransferWise Borderless Account, then send PHP via ACH (Bancnet) to Philippine PHP Savings account. But if you want to keep the amount as USD: withdraw USD from Paypal to TransferWise Borderless Account, then send USD via SWIFT to Philippine USD Savings account.
With Bitcoin Suddenly Surging, Canaan Stock Is Also Going Up Today
So- I am still in high school, but I plan on moving out maybe a year or so after I graduate to Georgia, where I believe I would be happier as a person. I have been doing some research on it. I know for a fact that I need to not only save money for the start-up part of moving out, but I also need to worry about other things like food, utilities, etc. Things in life that require bills basically. I have even been teaching myself about Forex trading and see if I could get a start there to help out with the financial aspect of life. So the first thing is to get high school out. That's always gonna be my #1. Next is to just do some little work on the side and just get a little bit of cash. Then, maybe after high school, I can get a full-time and try to save up for an apartment or something. Or just rent in general. I know it's not gonna be easy, for obvious reasons, but I think that I can achieve this goal with some discipline and dedication. Any tips for the long road? What should I do? So far all I have is to finish high school and do little jobs for some cash as a start. This is YEARS ahead by the way, so hopefully, all the world drama dies down. Yes, it may be early, but this is one of my long term goals.
Again within 24 hours of trying to work out a way to make this sustainable and workable for everyone I've noticed it's not worth the hassle to do so. It seems a lot of you expect everything for nothing. I'm afraid that is not going to work for me. Nothing I am doing is free for me, and if people do not want to pitch in the tiniest bit to help with that I can only conclude one of two things; 1 - The info is not worth $50 to you. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. 2 - People are ungrateful. In which case it is not worth my time writing it. If people were willing to meet me half way, I'd have went a lot further. People seem to want to stand where they are and shout over to me I'm a scammer for not bringing it all to their feet. That's a perspective. You can have it. I do not mind. But if this is your talk, I'll trade in silence. I'll also show you what happens with the "Scammy" info I was going to provide you for $50. In the week ahead I'll set up an account with a similar amount to the amount of money people seem to think it's egregious to ask for, and I'll run the same trades on this as will be in the trading plans shared in the proposed offer. I'll use recognised results tracking programs that will automatically verify and display the results. Build up phase: I'll start with currency trades. These are the lowest barrier to entry since I can trade micro lots and also have access to leverage. Currency trades should give me about 400 'pips' margin of error. Realistically, I should not need more than 40. I think SPX will be up 2 - 4% next week, this should give gains to on the Aussie against the Swiss (AUDCHF) - I'll go long AUDCHF. Margin up phase: After the currency trades I should have enough to trade SPX. I'll start to position short on SPX around 3080 and I'll take a first target of 2377. Given the right setups I'll add to my SPX short as prices are falling to bulk up the net take profit on the trade if it works. I'll trail my stops on the first trades to mke sure I'm not increasing my risk . Big up phase: By this time I should have enough margin to trade the Dow. Here I can make some real money. Around 21,000 I'll start to short the Dow and I'll be targeting 10,000. This trade should pay me somewhere in the region of $50,000 per traded lot. During the move I should be able to build up a position of at least 4 - 5 lots on the margin I have. Should be over $200,000 if it hits. Cash flow up phase: Once the drop has happened, I will begin to go long and do it in ways that will generate me daily income. I'll do this by transferring about $100K into options account and selling puts for 100 SPY. I'll also switch back to currency trades and I'll engage in what are known as "Carry trades", these will pay me every day I hold the trade based upon the "Swap". The best carry trades will depend upon what respective interest rates are at the time. Assuming things are similar (relatively) to how they currently are, I will be buying the Aussie, Kiwi and Turkish currencies and I'll be selling them against the dollar and Yen. This will be long AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDJPY and short USDTRY. I'll allocate $50,000 to carry trades. I'll use the remaining money to hedge and offset risks/losses on my cash flow trades if that is needed, and if not I will use it to make similar trades but ones based upon a short time frame and geared towards risk:reward based profit rather than passive cash flow. I'll keep doing this until the Dow is back to around 17,000 - 18,000. Crash cash phase: For the next phase of the drop I will again switch to trading the Dow. This is where I can make most money. I might also allocate $100 - 200K to OTM puts, but since this can be a slower more steady crash it will make more sense to build a position in the CFD market on the Dow. Again my Dow trade should pay over $50,000 per lot. This time building up over 20 lots should be fairly easy. Cash flow decade phase: Once the market has crashed I will start to become a big options seller. i'll also engage in carry trades if interest rates are not all screwed up (Which is there are 'currency wars' they could be). Being able to be on the right side of a carry trade will determine if this is viable or not - and that has some variables that can not be known at this time. I'd love to be able to just short USDTRY, though. If it's viable. With options, I will be selling both put options and call options. I think once the crash has happened we will enter into a long term theta market last 10 - 15 years - this period is known as a 'Lost decade)'. I'll sell SPY puts for under the lows and I'll also sell SPY calls each time there is jumps in upside volatility. I'll be happy to sell SPY calls for 200 for literally years on end. By this time I should have more than $50. I'll update my swing plans either bi-weekly, weekly or monthly. Pending on how much free time I have. I'll edit this post to add in the results tracking material when I set it up. Update: Here's the tracking link. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/2020sBeasomething-for-nothing/6040046 I set the copy software to invert trades & the first trades went short AUDCHF rather than long. That puts me on quite a substantial losing start, but it should not matter. Might push the start of SPX trades back a week. Probably won't. Let me just show the value of what I've been trying to teach you.
Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?
Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”
By ****\* March 16, 2020 After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets. Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround. We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%. This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.) As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels. Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)
Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy
To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process. Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth. Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation. Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard. Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines. Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly. All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while. Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble. Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy. The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry. In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer. There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating. What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…
The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time. Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future. The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable. Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus. My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe. This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy. Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else. The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO. The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today. The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy. It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming. Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook. Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary. But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…
What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle
The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing. Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power. That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output. Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better. To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors. Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it. The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term. We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently. The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios. Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now. For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar). Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone. In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year. Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.
Heavy Price Deflation Ahead
Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis. Why does that matter over the long term? Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger. The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying. Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies. The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt. The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs. For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets. In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.
What to Do Now
In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes. The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves. For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others. As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious. I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies. Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker. Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise. At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
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